‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, availability of cooking gas are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are adopting solid fuels and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and authorities say cylinders are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Approximately a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been sparked by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.