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The most severe potential impacts of the climate crisis for the UK have been outlined by experts, including a searing 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in sea levels. A separate possibility predicts a decline of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact farming and energy needs.

Possible Events, Not Predictions

These effects, certain ones are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are considered as improbable but credible. The scientists said that these scenarios plugged a hole in planning that had rendered the UK not ready for extreme outcomes.

"The climate extremes we have detailed aren’t predictions, but they are plausible," commented Nigel Arnell who oversaw the study. "Britain has been making preparations in the absence of the frameworks to test against worst-case scenarios. We've now given decision-makers what they need to get ready for future conditions they hope never happen, but dare not dismiss."

A Spectrum of Extreme Weather Possibilities

A second set of severe models details the potential extent of severe conditions between now and the end of the century. These indicate that temperatures could soar in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than historical levels, while rainfall could be 300% of standard measurements.

The likelihood of the catastrophic events coming to pass could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what steps will be enacted to tackle climate change and how the climate system will react. This research was likened to defence planning or stress tests for the banking sector.

Major Possibility Elements

• Severe Heating: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts collapses or if powerful amplifying effects like the tropical forests dying emit its enormous store of carbon. This would result in severe and lengthy heatwaves and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A critical sea current, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and losing stability due to climate change. A collapse starting around 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would be severely challenged and water supplies would be completely altered," noted the lead researcher.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if ice sheets in the polar regions melt abruptly, inundating coastal cities and towns. Differing from the other scenarios, this possibility is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is drastically reduced. This paradoxical outcome occurs because tiny specks from burning coal scatter solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Extreme

The severe models could be used to inform the development of major projects, such as expanded cities, nuclear power stations and flood defences. Knowledge about these climate risks could also hasten the push to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The analysis created the severe projections using a combination of real-world events, computer simulations and scientific theory. These outcomes do not take into account potential global problems like the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

The project was commissioned as part of a government’s adaptation planning initiative. Earlier reports have warned that too little consideration was being paid to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

Official experts has stated that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and assess the risks for 4C. Past policy documents have been described as being "very weak" by certain experts.

A national response said: "Global warming is at the core of our national priorities, both building resilience and establishing itself as a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is prepared for the impacts."