Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
