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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still