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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to adopt a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "significant ramifications" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing ceasefire discussions, Trump ultimately imposed considerable sanctions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or European input, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Invasion

This plan would essentially reward the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", much of the proposal effectively compromise that same independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate background, the former president seems to treat the war as a simple territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. But, Putin's invasion is not simply about controlling a charred swath of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to destroy it so it no longer acts as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Giveaways

While freezing in place the presently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require the nation to give up the whole Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian military defenses critically undermined.

This region is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that represent a essential impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, providing Russian forces a open path to Kyiv in case he eventually opt to renew the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would make future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the size of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's proposal sets no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Any Nazi belief system and actions must be condemned and forbidden." As if to underscore this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by conducting elections in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its position of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has breached similar agreements in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the region to the government – how should we believe this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the plan threatens a "strong joint military response" if the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars vary from vague to concerning. The proposal would not just prevent the nation Nato membership but also prevent member states from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the security presence, likely headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from rebuilding his diminished military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Response

Another side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "major, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. However in contrast to a capable national defense – the nation's primary protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, including the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not