Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The mean figure of daily murders per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent government data. However, public safety analysts have warned that murder figures could fail to indicate enhanced national stability.

Marked Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had in these past months is extremely significant,” the President stated, adding that last month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

But, public safety experts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is notably true given the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for gauging the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was also concerning because it may mask days when there were especially elevated levels of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by high bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.